I call this the Black Box Effect: the degree to which authors are still mostly in the dark about what makes their book marketing and platform-building efforts succeed. For authors to take full advantage of this incredible time in publishing we need to reduce that effect, which means we need better data, and better tools to help capture and measure the data that already exists. So I went to Author (R)evolution Day last week to see how far along we are in chipping away at the edges of that black box.

Happily, we are further along than many authors realize.

I should back up for a moment and note that author platforms were only part of the ambitious agenda for Author (R)evolution Day. #ARDay, as it was fondly referred to, was in fact several events in one. Attendees got an overview of publishing, a call-to-arms against DRM, crash courses on copyright and metadata, and hot conversations about community-building, production, distribution, and discovery models.

I will focus here on some key takeaways and promising methods for minimizing the black box effect. For a complete archive of event coverage, go here.

What’s an Indie Author anymore?

Agent provocateur Jason Allen Ashlock pointed out that “indie author” is not an accurate term for what is now more of a team sport. Authors do best when they collaborate with editors, designers, and many others to publish their work. And moderator Kristen McLean presented some compelling numbers from DBW on the advantages of being a “hybrid” author: they earn on average $10,000 more per year than traditionally published authors, and $31,000 more than authors who are solely self-published.

Eve Bridburg of Grub Street spoke about the importance of authors supporting each other in finding the best avenues to discoverability, and on redefining success as something greater than just book sales. Author platforms, it seems, are intricately networked with one another and should reflect a well thought-out strategy extending beyond a single book.

Make it free

No, we blessedly did not discuss Kindle ebook pricing. Rather, we looked at free in terms of how to give readers that strong incentive to read our books. Rob Eagar suggested that it only takes one good reason, and laid out quite a nice assortment of marketing ideas, including offering exclusive unpublished writing in blogs, PDF downloads, and pre-launch emails.

One of the liveliest sessions was on Community-Driven Publishing, where free extended to podcasts and chapter readings, offering new content on Wattpad, and using Glossi to make gorgeous magazine giveaways. Kickstarter and Pubslush were compared, and it will be very interesting to see how the newer but more book-focused and analytics-rich Pubslush platform grows in the coming year.

Embracing data, hugging technologists

On the issue of better data, Laura Dawson informed us that while there may not be a map to discoverability, metadata is our gear shift and we ought to know how to use it. That involves cleaning up incorrect metadata associated with your books on all the “new Big 6″: Google, Apple, Amazon, Sony, Kobo, and Nook.

One of my favorite parts of the day was learning about the many promising platforms that offer new production, distribution, and sales tracking tools. Companies such as LeanPub, Net Minds and especially WriterCube are poised to crack open that black box in a big way. Most authors are not early adopters, but I hope Author (R)evolution Day makes these great startups more visible, which will also help them achieve scale and become even more effective.

Keeping it all in perspective

In the end, though, the day’s main message was to pay attention to metrics, but not let them rule the roost (see Rob Eagar’s related article here). Remember that conversations on social media are a two-way street. Keep creating great content. Figure out your overall strategy and goals first, then choose the tactics that work best for you.

The good news for authors is that we’re living and writing in a whole new landscape. You have a gear shift, if not a car. There are plenty of people—agents, publishers and technologists as well as other authors—ready with tools and collaborations to help crack open that black box. And the rest of us are just waiting to hear back about what works for you.

Piersanti lays out what many of us already know about non-fiction book publishing: sales of print books are declining, and the surge in ebook sales is not enough to offset the losses. Meanwhile, the number of titles published each year continues to increase, leading to fewer sales per title overall and the challenges of marketing books in an overcrowded market.

“The 10 Awful Truths” lays out the story in a nearly hypnotic, paint-by-numbers manner, culminating in this bleak forecast:

The thin margins in the industry, high complexities of the business, intense competition, churning of new technologies, and rapid growth of other media lead to constant turmoil in bookselling and publishing…. Translation: expect even more changes and challenges in coming months and years.

Even with the cognitive dissonance of reading this while dining on perfectly grilled salmon and a fine sauvignon blanc, it struck me that none of it was very new. The cumulative effect of those numbers carries an impact no doubt intended to make authors think twice before publishing, and it certainly stirred up anxieties in the audience. Yet the piece ends with an important list of insights and strategies that should not be overlooked.

Communities buy books; people buy recognizable brands; author events and pass-through sales all help move the needle. Authors need to trim down their manuscripts to the essential ideas, and explore new marketing, platform, and community-building channels. Piersanti doesn’t go into detail on any of these points but he does lay them out, and the opportunities they suggest are huge.

This is nothing that Tools of Change readers don’t already know, and it would take very little effort to generate a list of promising start-ups designed to leverage these very opportunities. No doubt we will be hearing much more about them at Author (R)evolution Day next month. But for any of these ventures to succeed they need critical mass, and that means weaning authors off the notion that somehow their book will beat the odds even if they don’t innovate.

The 10 Awful Truths alone may not be enough to tip the scales in that direction, but it’s certainly a very good start. And if holding more forums in swank Valley environs will help, I humbly volunteer to fill a chair.

When I first heard the publishing industry referred to as an ecosystem I immediately wanted to see a map of it on the wall. How does water cycle through the system? Which communities are currently well-placed, and where are the likely spots for new ones to grow?

As much as they clarify and educate, maps quickly become misleading when the terrain is constantly shifting. For authors trying to make sense of the publishing landscape today, even with the best map it is always wise to carry a compass.

That said, what would the publishing ecosystem look like if we placed authors at its center? Let’s start with a spring, bubbling up amid the moss and bracken, spilling into creeks and irrigating fields as it wends its way downstream.

This is a very different vantage from the 30,000-foot view we normally hear about, where entire weather systems are created when Google changes its search algorithm, or Amazon moves against Apple. These are powerful, global shifts in distribution and visibility, and yet their affect on the ground varies widely.

Writers may prefer to focus on storytelling, but publishing is about cultivation and commerce. To some extent, legacy publishers are like barges on the mighty Mississippi. A century ago, an author whose story was picked up by one of those powerful paddle-wheelers could rightly expect it to be distributed far and wide.

Of course, book distribution will never again be just about physical products. With the ebook explosion an entire new water cycle has emerged, where instead of having to ship product downstream, anyone can set up a still and evaporate content directly into the cloud. From there, it appears around the globe instantly for a fraction of the cost.

Digital publishing (and self-publishing) alone is no guarantee of making it rain back home, though. For that, authors need to create one of the most complex and misunderstood mechanisms in all of publishing: the platform.

I find the term “author platform” misleading. It exacerbates the competitive, zero-sum anxiety all authors have, while completely missing the point of what we need to build. At the risk of pushing my organic map metaphor too far, it’s not just the height of the platform that makes an author successful, but the quality of the soil beneath.

In other words, any attempt at rising in prominence will ultimately fail if an author doesn’t offer value that benefits the community around her. That all-important compass must allow each author find a balance of in-person and virtual presence, a happy medium between social media acumen and genuinely good writing.

There is a whole landscape of platform-building start-ups and services being marketed to authors right now, and it’s hard to tell which is the next Betamax and which will be the VHS. One thing I know from my own travels is that alone, authors cannot hope to understand every new niche and tool. It takes working together, pooling resources and sharing insights, to compile a map that will help us all be at the right place at the right time, when it really does start to rain.

Let us help you navigate the ever-changing author landscape. Join us as we launch Author (R)evolution Day at TOC NY in February. Click here to register, use the discount code AR350 and you’ll get the best price available.