Tools
New on O'Reilly Labs: Open Feedback Publishing System
O'Reilly engineer Keith Fahlgren has formally launched our new Open Feedback Publishing System over on O'Reilly Labs:
Over the last few years, traditional publishing has been moving closer to the web and learning a lot of lessons from blogs and wikis, in particular. Today we're happy to announce another small step in that direction: our first manuscript (Programming Scala) is now available for public reading and feedback as part of our Open Feedback Publishing System. The idea is simple: improve in-progress books by engaging the community in a collaborative dialog with the authors out in the open. To do this, we followed the model of the Django Book, Real World Haskell, and Mercurial: The Definitive Guide (among others) and built a system to regularly publish the whole manuscript online as HTML with a comment box under every paragraph, sidebar, figure, and table.
You can see the system in action at the site for our upcoming book Programming Scala.
Authoring Tools from Alpha Geeks
Cory Doctorow (@doctorow) has posted a nice article covering some of the tools he's built or borrowed to make his writing life more manageable. I'm especially intrigued by the Flashbake project, which augments simple use of version control (something many of our authors have been using for years, and which we use extensively in our production toolchain) to automatically capture contemporaneous data about the writing process:
Now, this may be of use to some notional scholar who wants to study my work in a hundred years, but I'm more interested in the immediate uses I'll be able to put it to — for example, summarizing all the typos I've caught and corrected between printings of my books. Flashbake also means that I'm extremely backed up (Git is designed to replicate its database to other servers, in order to allow multiple programmers to work on the same file). And more importantly, I'm keen to see what insights this brings to light for me about my own process. I know that there are days when the prose really flows, and there are days when I have to squeeze out each word. What I don't know is what external factors may bear on this.
Thinking about content like code opens up a wealth of tools and techniques for managing that content. After all, programmers spend more time than just about anyone doing what can very easily be called "creative writing" with text, so it's no surprise they've built tools to make their lives easier and more productive. We're getting ready to announce a new project over at O'Reilly Labs, one also built on top of version control (Subversion in our case) and another example of using software tools to improve the writing (and in this case reading) experience.
Open Publishing Distribution System -- an Open-Standards Catalog Format
It's no secret we're big fans of the iPhone/iPod reading app Stanza. While the Kindle App has overtaken Stanza for the top-spot among free book apps in iTunes, Stanza offers a much better reading experience than the Kindle App (for example, by supporting standard formatting like tables and whitespace-preservation) (Update: You can use the latest version of mobigen.exe to get better whitespace-preservation (from <pre> and friends) on the Kindle.) And I'm not the only one who feels that way: "Stanza is hands-down the best e-book reader for the iPhone and iPod Touch, and its free. Go. Get it now." (Wired.com).
But more than the quality of the software, the major reason I'm so bullish on Stanza is their willingness to experiment. When our own Keith Fahlgren suggested they use the standard Atom format for their catalog system, they responded:
We wound up taking your advice and implemented support for Atom for Stanza's catalog format. Thanks for the suggestion! Using the Atom standard is much better than using our own custom format (although we may need to eventually extend the custom format with our own tags).
And when we proposed using Stanza to create a standalone book app (for iPhone: The Missing Manual), they were eager to dive in head first, and we both learned a lot in the process.
That Atom-based Online Catalog feature turned out to be an interesting prototype for a distributed digital discovery and ecommerce system, and it's awesome to see them willing to embrace the potential for such a system well beyond the boundaries their own product, and to join with Peter Brantley and the Internet Archive in laying the groundwork for what's being called the Open Publication Distribution System:
Users of compatible Reading Systems, in addition to being able to access content they have previously acquired or acquire via other means, are also able to access a catalog (list of online sources of content). Typically, the catalog offers a number of free titles, which may be hosted by the Reading System vendor and/or other sites, as well as the opportunity to purchase or borrow paid content from stores and libraries. Additional stores and libraries may be added by the user to their personal catalog. The mechanism through which compatible Reading Systems access the distributed catalog has three components: eBook content, XML catalog metadata, and an HTTP transport for the catalog. The remainder of this document will discuss each of those components in turn.
One of the reasons we've thrown our support behind the Bookworm online ebook reading system as part of O'Reilly Labs is to help support the development and testing of new standards like this one, and we're excited to contribute to this new initiative. It's also great to see Adobe support this as well, and is a nice follow on to our work with them on EPUB output for the open-source DocBook XSL stylesheets.
"Bite-Size Edits" from BookOven
Hugh McGuire's startup BookOven has opened up an alpha version of a project they're calling the Gutenberg Rally, an attempt to harness collective intelligence Mechanical-Turk style to proofread Project Gutenberg texts for typos and OCR (Optical Character Recognition) errors. In "divide and conquer" style, the system presents just one small snippet of text at a time (with some surrounding context), effectively breaking down a mountain of a task into easily managed molehills:

I had a nice chat with Hugh on Wednesday morning, and what he told me about what's to come from BookOven was quite exciting (though apparently still very much in development).
This isn't the first attempt to harness eyeballs for finding and fixing OCR errors (see ReCaptcha), but reviewing the text in context is a much more satisfying experience, and left me wanting to read more of several of the books I was seeing only in snippet form.
Software Development as Collaborative Writing
Following a lively backchannel email discussion, I'd planned to blog about what writers, editors, and publishers can learn from software developers (specifically their tools and techniques) but Tim beat me to it over on the Radar blog.
As I said in my email, The more I think about it the more obvious it's becoming to me that the next generation of authoring/production tools will have much more in common with today's software development tools than with today's word processors.
Software developers spend enormous amounts of time creatively writing with text, editing, revising, refining multiple interconnected textual works -- and often doing so in a highly distributed way with many collaborators. Few writers or editors spend as much time as developers with text, and it only makes sense to apply the lessons developers have learned about managing collaborative writing and editing projects at scale.
Programmers faced with annoying problems like "how do I make sure that changes I make to this text don't conflict with someone else's changes" or "how do I tell who among several writers made a particular change to some text" solved those problems long ago (Wikis are a great example of applying some of those tools and techniques to the writing process; API-based offline blogging editors are another).
And while using those tools as-is probably won't make sense for a lot of non-technical writers, those willing to at least try them out will learn a lot about what the next generation of collaborative, distributed, digital publishing tools will look like.
Jakob Nielsen: Kindle Content Must be Kindle-Specific
Jakob Nielsen offers an in-depth look at Kindle formatting best practices:
For Kindle, it's certainly unacceptable to simply repurpose print content. But you can't repurpose website content, either. For good Kindle usability, you have to design for the Kindle. Write Kindle-specific headlines and create Kindle-specific article structures. [Link included in original post.]
Taxonomies and Starting With XML
This is an excerpt from a blog post I wrote last week on taxonomies and chunking.
Last October, the StartWithXML team wrote a post called "To Chunk or Not To Chunk," where we discussed tagging and infrastructure issues, and a discussion ensued about what happens when you don't know what you'll be using chunks for. How do you tag those?
Later, in our StartwithXML One-Day Forum, we included a presentation on tagging and chunking best practices, where it was pointed out that no taxonomy for chunk-level content currently exists.
We have taxonomies for book-level content. These include formalized code sets such as theLibrary of Congress subject codes, the BISAC codes, the Dewey Decimal System, among others. There are also informal code sets, like the tag sets on Shelfari or Library Thing. There are proprietary taxonomies at Amazon and B&N.com that enable effective browsing.
But nothing like this exists for sub-book-level content. It's never been traded before. We've never really needed a taxonomy for it before.
Other industries that traditionally distribute "chunks" have their own taxonomies that might prove useful in building a book-chunk schema. These include the IPTC news codes, which identify the content of a particular news story -- that's the closest analogy I can find for small gobbets of content that require organization.
Industries have proprietary taxonomies to identify certain concepts -- culinary arts, music, agriculture, engineering, the sciences, literature and criticism, education, and on and on and on. But these do not necessarily identify concepts within a book.
Some might argue that we don't necessarily need taxonomies -- why can't we use natural-language search and the semantic Web to "bubble up" the "right" concepts? I'd argue that words don't always mean what we think they mean. A classic example from my library days is the term "mercury." That could mean the planet, the car or the element. Proponents of semantic search would say that the context in which "mercury" is mentioned should take care of defining that term. I'd say that's true in about 50 percent of all cases but not definitively true enough in 75-100%.
My original post gets into more detail about why taxonomies are important search tools, and how the digitization of books requires a good taxonomy ... and who should do it.
Virginia Open Sourcing Physics Textbook ("Flexbook")
I was part of a brief Twitter exchange recently with Cengage's Ken Brooks about the cost of textbooks:
kenbrooks: @doctorow #toc That depends entirely on the type of book. A K-12 reading program costs $millions.
andrewsavikas: @kenbrooks not necessarily. See ck12.org
kenbrooks: @andrewsavikas Talk to McGraw Hill or Pearson about basal reading programs. The intricacies are staggering. #toc
I like Ken a lot personally (and respect him a ton professionally), and I have no reason to doubt that it does take millions to develop many educational programs. But my reference to ck12.org (whose founder, Neeru Khosla, keynoted at TOC 2008) was because if it does cost that much, then something's wrong with the system, and that's not likely to change without the work of groups like ck12.
In fact, Virgina is already in the process of developing an open-source "flexbook" for physics using the ck12 platform:
Secretary of Technology Aneesh Chopra and Secretary of Education Tom Morris today announced the selection of thirteen individuals to form a core team to pilot the development and release of an open–source physics "flexbook" for Virginia. This electronic material will focus on high school physics and contain contemporary and emerging 21st century physics and modern laboratory experiments.
The Virginia Physics "Flexbook" project is a collaborative effort of the Secretaries of Education and Technology and the Department of Education that seeks to elevate the quality of physics instruction across the Commonwealth by allowing educators to create and compile supplemental materials relating to 21st century physics in an open–source format that can be used to strengthen physics content. The Commonwealth is partnering with the Palo Alto, California–based non–profit, CK–12 on this initiative as they will provide the free, open–source technology platform to facilitate the publication of the newly developed content as a "flexbook" — defined simply as an adaptive, web–based set of instructional materials.
"We need transformational ideas to ensure all Virginians are educated to compete in an increasingly competitive global economy," said Secretary Chopra. "This pilot initiative is a step in the right direction to introduce our students to contemporary physics topics and lab materials at no additional cost to the taxpayers or students," added Secretary Morris.
There is certainly a place for the investment-intensive educational publishing programs that only a firm with the resources of Cengage or Pearson or McGraw-Hill can provide. But there's also enormous opportunity to try new models that take advantage of the kind of collaboration that underpins all of academia to develop and distribute quality learning material for students at lower costs. (BTW, ck12 is hiring.)
Video: Android meets Eink
Keeping with the "labs" theme for recent posts, via a tweet from George Walkley:
Lots of talk about devices at TOC - now just saw this, Android + e-ink http://vimeo.com/3162590 #toc
The guys at MOTO labs have hacked together a prototype showing Google's Android operating system running on an e-ink display:
Android Meets E Ink from MOTO Development Group on Vimeo.
The "O'Reilly Bump" and Bookworm
During his TOC Keynote, Tim O'Reilly talked about how the status he confers through "retweets" on Twitter are really just another form of publishing, not much different from the status we confer on authors by publishing them, or speakers by featuring them (especially at multiple conferences), or hackers by inviting them to Foo Camp.
On the Web, the effects are easily measured, and Liza Daly has a post over at O'Reilly Labs talking about the bump Bookworm got from the association with O'Reilly. Her graph tells the main story, but digging deeper reveals some notable nuggets (emphasis in the original):
Because of this integration [with Stanza], iPhone and iPod Touch users account for 10-20% of all visitors to Bookworm on any given day
Photos from New York Times R&D Lab
Nick Bilton was a hit yesterday at the TOC Conference, and during his keynote he talked about what they're working on with content at the NYT R&D Lab. Nick was kind enough to give a few of us a private tour earlier this week, and here's some photos from the trip:
Open XML API for O'Reilly Metadata
In addition to Bookworm, O'Reilly Labs now includes an RDF-based API into all of O'Reilly's books:
Most publishers are familiar with the ONIX standard for exchanging metadata about books among trading partners. Anyone who's actually spent time working with ONIX knows that its syntax is abstruse at best. While ONIX does use XML, there are more modern, more general, and more immediately comprehensible standards out there, particularly for the basic details like "author," "title," and "edition." One of those standards is RDF, or "Resource Description Framework." This experimental O'Reilly Product Metadata Interface (OPMI) exposes RDF for all of O'Reilly's titles, organized by ISBN.
If anyone onsite (or otherwise) puts anything interesting together with the data, we'll be happy to feature it here on the TOC Blog, just let us know in the comments.
At TOC: Cory Doctorow to Publishers: Demand Option To *Not* Use DRM
I knew Cory Doctorow would be a great wrap up to the first day morning keynotes at TOC, and he more than delivered.
He ended the keynote with a challenge to publishers: withhold digital content from any device or service that doesn't give you the option to exclude DRM. (For example, right now publishers cannot sell books on the Kindle or audio books on Audible without DRM.) He's proposing "Doctorow's Law" which I'm paraphrasing here from memory:
If someone takes something that belongs to you, and puts a lock on it that you don't have a key for, that lock isn't in your best interests.
We couldn't agree more, and it's a big reason we sell all of our ebooks (now more than 400) without DRM (and with a Kindle-compatible format that can be added manually to a Kindle), and why we don't enable DRM in our iPhone Apps either. I agree with Cory, and strongly encourage publishers to not use DRM at all for their digital content, but at a minimum, it should at least be a choice for a publisher to make.
Good Company Culture Comes in Small Packages
Common wisdom says that small companies are more nimble, responsive and adaptable than their larger cousins.
My personal experience reflects this. I've worked in large organisations -- FMCG corporates, international aid organisations and government -- and I've worked in small ones -- private consulting firms and small non-profits. In each case I've found that small enterprises outperform large ones when it comes to transformation. Smaller companies are faster to identify industry trends and respond to new business opportunities. They also punch above their weight on some forms of R&D, particularly business process innovation. Put simply, small companies are more fleet of foot.
But why?
We're seeing a lot of reports come through about how small publishers are responding to trends and opportunities. MediaBistro and The Christian Science Monitor have both reported small publishers are leading the charge when it comes to digitization. In his article, "E-book revolution favors the agile", Matthew Shaer said:
But it's not the bigger houses, such as Macmillan or HarperCollins, that are moving the fastest. Instead, some of the most extensive restructuring efforts are being undertaken in the independent publishing world, traditionally a hotbed for innovation and experimentation.
Soft Skull Press, Canongate, Akashic are all good examples. Shaer also points out that publishing is emulating the music industry in this pattern and, I'd wager, other industries as well.
Again, I ask why?
The obvious reasons are the ones people usually point to. Smaller companies are like the canary in the coal mine. They are first to feel the effects of major shifts within an industry and may need to move faster to find solutions. On the other hand, small publishers also have an incentive to exploit technological efficiencies that might even up the playing field against big competitors.
Small size also helps with changing direction. This week Wheatland Press announced it is taking a publishing hiatus in 2009:
What this means is that I will publish no new books during 2009 (including Polyphony 7). I will continue to fill orders on existing titles and will keep those titles available through Amazon and Barnes & Noble.com ... I will explore ways to put Wheatland Press on a firmer financial footing including, but not limited to, seeking external funding via arts councils, seeking partnerships with other presses, etc. I hope the break will allow me to return to a regular publishing schedule in 2010.
On one level this could be regarded as just another volley of bad news from a publisher affected by global economic conditions. But it's worth noting that only a small publisher could make this kind of decision. HarperCollins and Random House can't make the choice to stop publishing books for a year to sort out their business model and make necessary changes. They can cut costs through staff layoffs and tightening budgets, but their operational overheads are way too large to ever get off the treadmill of publishing hundreds of titles a year.
Underneath it all, though, the one thing that has the biggest impact on a company's ability to transform is the one thing that almost never gets talked about in the publishing industry: organizational culture. Paul Biba of TeleRead, quoted in the Shaer article, hints at this but doesn't quite nail it down:
"In general, I'd say the big publishers tend to be really dinosaurs, intrigued by e-books but afraid of them ... [Younger readers] have grown up with a whole different way of looking at the world, and I don't think many publishers understand this. They think people are just sitting down in leather chairs and reading hardcopy books."
I'm not sure this is a fair characterization of publisher attitudes today, but I do think it alludes to a bigger problem that is stopping large publishers from embracing new opportunities.
Big trade publishers are fighting a losing battle against their own organizational cultures. The history of business is littered with examples of companies that couldn't transition from one paradigm to the next, not because they couldn't see the necessity, but because they couldn't undertake the necessary internal change.
The larger a company is, the harder organisational change is to effect. The big trade publishers are now subsidiaries of the largest media companies in the world with thousands of employees, hundreds of offices and decades of crusted-on beliefs, traditions and systems. Small teams, by virtue of scale, can change their organisational culture quickly, sometimes through shifts in personnel, other times by the sheer force of personality from a charismatic leader. In any case, smaller teams tend to adopt a tenacious, can-do, try-anything culture because they have to.
Organisational culture is the bedrock of performance. This, more than any problem of physical infrastructure or technical or financial systems, makes big publishers slow to adapt. Too slow, I fear, to survive the speed of change within the cultural and economic ecology of which they are a part.
New experiments are popping up, such as HarperStudio, which could be the exception that proves the rule. Only by hiving itself off as a separate, entrepreneurial unit within HarperCollins, with its own small-team culture, has HarperStudio been able to achieve the clear-eyed perspective and momentum to try really different and new ways of publishing.
Paul Biba may have called it right by using the word "dinosaur." After all, it was the small dinosaurs, with modern-day descendants still thriving, who made the successful adaptation that evolution requires. The big guys fell hard and fast and it's increasingly rare to find any evidence of their impact on us at all.
StartWithXML Research Report Now Available for Sale
If you weren't able to attend the StartWithXML Forum last month in New York, the accompanying research report is available for sale. The report covers topics like:
- Where am I and where do I want to end up?
- How much benefit do I want to obtain from content reuse and repurposing?
- How much work do I want to do myself?
- How much time and money will this take?
When you purchase the report, you get it as our full eBook Bundle, including PDF, EPUB, and Kindle-compatible Mobipocket formats.
If you're ready for a deeper dive into XML, there are two very complementary tutorials lined up during next week's TOC Conference:
And if that's still not enough angle brackets for you, check out the Introduction to XML course from the O'Reilly School of Technology, which earns you four CEUs (Continuing Education Units) and a CEU letter from the University of Illinois Office of Continuing Education. Save $50 with discount code SWXML09.
Webcast Video: Essential Tools of an XML Workflow
Below you'll find the full recording from the TOC webcast, "Essential Tools of an XML Workflow," with Laura Dawson.
Read more…New York Times Opens "Best Sellers API"
The New York Times on Tuesday opened up its "Best Sellers API," offering programmatic access to best-seller data (going back to 1930!) from the Times:
The Times Best Sellers API gives you quick access to current and past best-seller lists in 11 different categories, such as Hardcover Nonfiction and Paperback Mass-Market Fiction. The initial launch offers every weekly list since June 2008, and in the coming months, we plan to add data going back to 1930 (thanks to the hard work of our Books staff). The API also offers details about specific best sellers, including historical rank information and links to New York Times reviews and excerpts. And these aren't just canned responses; they're searchable and sortable, with even more robust options coming in the next release.
I'm a huge fan of what the Times has done to embrace open architecture and data formats (and Nick Bilton, from the Times' R&D Lab, will be a keynote speaker at next month's TOC Conference), and this is a great example of what content creators and curators (i.e., publishers) can do to give customers the opportunity to create new value on top of that content. We've offered an API for our Safari Books Online product for several years now, and have some very interesting internal projects percolating to take things a step further.
The Coming Readers' Economy and Data Portability
This is a guest post by Mark Bertils.
At the end of last year one event signaled a huge shift in how the book publishing industry will do business. It's not what you think. It was December's launch of Facebook Connect. A land grab for user identities followed. The Web's people economy is coming of age.
Facebook's Squid Tries to Eat the Internet's Whale
The Connect program wasn't new in December. It was announced in May 2008. It isn't even original. But it marks the coming-out party for Facebook's social graph. Users are now free to come and go from Facebook's walled garden. They can bring their Facebook-endorsed identity (and relationships) with them as they travel the Internet. It is a major development for the social Web. It is a further claim on the permanence and importance of these platforms. And it is the clearest marker yet that the social networking boom of the last five years has beget a new Internet-wide folks-economy.
Seemingly overnight online user identity (here I mean the entire Web -- every site, every service) became a battleground between Web giants. Google and MySpace are parrying. The OpenID foundation is the Red Cross. Everyone else is taking sides. Identity politics has never been so interesting.
But this is not simply about portable identities and the single-sign-on Web. It is a fundamental shift in the Web economy. It is a bold stride toward relationship monetization -- where user data exchange becomes the most important transactional unit on the Internet.
Readers Are The Most Important Asset
This is pivotal for book publishers and other creators of digital goods.
It is no secret that infinitely copyable products aren't worth very much, so naturally, value is moving up the food chain. As Softskull's Richard Nash recently wrote at the Harvard Business Publishing blog, in the future, monetizing and organizing relationships -- not products -- will pay publishers' rents.
To some degree this is happening already. O'Reilly Media have made conferences a large part of what they do. Harlequin's on-line role is largely to connect like-minded readers. And the reader economy is alive and well at the myriad of social networks for book lovers. But what of the other houses? How best to make this mindshift? How to redeploy the resources spent managing a supply chain of products to manage a supply chain of peoples' information?
BookDrop facilitates passing product info from one business to another. An analogue is needed for passing reader info between businesses. How is that going to happen? Who is going to do it?
Open Standards. Reader First.
The volunteers at Dataportability.org are already asking these questions. The group champions the unimpeded movement of user data around the Web. That includes user identities but it also extends beyond OpenID to include open address book standards, open calendar standards, and open standards for opinions, ratings and reviews. It is entirely grassroots and focuses on user-controlled, privacy-respecting data portability.
On their wiki, information specific to publishers and media organizations is thin but a need has been identified to standardize and provide guidance to publishers. The call is out for task-force volunteers to identify and report on the unique requirements within the generalized publishing domain.
To get the conversation started I have volunteered to be the interim chairman of the media publishers' dataportability task-force. I am hoping interested parties will step forward to fill the ranks of this group. The end goal is to publish a report that encourages the distribution and adoption of reader-friendly standards. If you, or someone you know, would interested in participating contact me at org.mark atgmail[.]com.
Mark Bertils is a grad student, reluctant technical writer, an aspiring technologist, and a book industry orphan. He maintains a blog at indexmb.com
Conversation is the New King
Kate Eltham calls out publishers who blog through a PR lens and points the way to publisher blogs that fully embrace the medium:
It used to be common wisdom that content is king. But the popularity of social media has demonstrated that what internet users are really seeking is connection. A blog may be a cheap and easy way of publishing web content but its biggest strength is that it is a platform for conversation. [Emphasis included in original post.]
The Realities of Big Web Traffic and Advertising
Major news sites that rely on advertising as their primary revenue stream need to log hundreds of millions of page views per month to attract significant attention from advertisers, according to a new report from Lauren Rich Fine, research director of ContentNext.
From Advertising Age:
"Based on our research, the conversation [with advertisers] gets interesting at 200 million page views plus a month, but much more so around 800 million," Ms. Fine writes ...
... The report also looks at whether the [New York] Times could ever succeed as a web-only product, and concludes that it could -- once NYT.com starts generating 1.3 billion page views a month.
(Note: Advertising Age cites ComScore Media Metrix figures that put the Times' traffic at 173 million page views in October, but the Times communications department says this figure is very low).
Traffic estimates in the hundreds of millions and billions are a shock to the system, but they're nothing new. Jeremy Liew analyzed the online media industry in early 2007 (a time when Web advertising was still enjoying double-digit growth) and concluded:
At large scale, without a great deal of targeting possible, a startup's "run of site" or "run of network" advertising might be able to get to the $1 RPM range (Revenue per thousand impressions, including CPM, CPC, and CPA models). To get to $50m in revenue you would need 50 billion pageviews in a year, or just over 4 billion per month.
This type of analysis -- which is certainly on target -- is why it's important for publishers to acknowledge the reality of Web advertising by addressing two deeper questions:
1. Can I reach sustainability faster by aggregating advertising across sites or building a smaller organization? -- Limited choice shoehorns audiences into large groups, but the Web disrupts channel lock-in by allowing individual consumers to find material on their own terms. Big organizations are in trouble because the transition from limited channels to distributed channels means audiences are smaller (ie: 1 million vs. 10 million, 100,000 vs. 1 million, etc). There's still significant value in reaching 1 million people, or even 100,000 people, but smaller audiences attract less advertising revenue. So the challenge is to either scale businesses down so audience size, advertising dollars and sustainability even out, or, aggregate advertising revenue from a large number of targeted sites. Both options are arduous, but both are also realistic. Finding and maintaining billions of page views per month is not (the New York Times being the exception here).
2. Can I diversify beyond advertising? -- Ad-only Web models are inherently flimsy because the thing advertisers want is the thing most Web sites can't attract: huge crowds. A lot of lip service has been paid to the Web's targeting argument -- and in Google's case, that's proven effective and lucrative -- but the analysis from Fine and Liew shows that advertisers still can't shake that "big crowd" mentality. So if that's the reality, advertising needs to become one revenue stream among others.
Folks like Mike Masnick, Clay Shirky, Kevin Kelly and Chris Anderson have addressed these "other" revenue steams at length (all are recommended reading), but the abridged analysis of their work generally comes down to one word: scarcity. Digital content is not scarce. It's easy to find, distribute and copy (even if publishers lock it down). Because of this, audiences don't often equate "digital content" with "pay." Publishers can fight consumer expectation by creating artificial scarcity (DRM, pay walls for general content), but that same energy is better directed toward products that are naturally scarce: things that solve a problem (recommendations, education), offer an experience (readings, concerts, trips, conferences), grant access (consulting, POD for out of print titles), save time (curated information), and offer value on an individual basis (customization). All of these are outside publishers' comfort zones and none are guaranteed to catch on, but models that work in conjunction with the digital world offer a better shot at sustainability than those built on artificial limits and unrealistic audience sizes.
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